Just checked the odds: 4/11 on staying, 15/8 on leaving. But this is a race over the sticks, and favorites have been known to fall. The polls seem to reflect those odds. But polls change and lots can happen in four months. One can't ignore the ongoing refugee problem, for example. As an aside, from the colonies: in the last four major elections in Canada (Quebec, BC, Alberta, and Federal), the polls proved dead wrong, leaving me to believe that the campaign with its speeches, debates, and electioneering will be very important. Demographics are important too. Masstricht was about 23 years ago; this means that voters under 35 (not too many interested in politics in their first 12 years) have never known a world without the EU. I know it's a simplification, but those 35 and younger are Europeans. Among those older, there are many ... and I'm one of them ... who don't think of Britain as a European country.
And why am I interested, even to the point of reading up on the history of the EU ... I have time on my hands until the hockey playoffs begin.
In other words, I'm bored, and would rather pass the time educating myself than watching re-runs of "Finding Bigfoot."
