Substitutions and the Football Genius

Lord Didsbury · 24-01-2020, 13:04

Coley gets a load of criticism about using subs.... or not using them.

Conventional wisdom seems to be you should be chucking on subs when you are ahead to close down the game, and chucking on subs when behind to chase the game and hurling on subs to break the deadlock if drawing.

I'd say that it takes a genius to go against conventional wisdom, ignore the doubters and the moaners and the whingers and succeed in doing so.

Coley, if i remember correctly, won league 2 on the shocking (to some) basis of generally making very few subs and sticking with the best players being on the pitch. In fact, he even took his motley crew of misfits into div 1, whereupon they more than held their own against clubs many times larger with this same strategy.

I don't remember the details and probably "don't have a brain cell" so it would be good if a comparative analysis were done of how well Stanley do (versus other clubs) in the last 45 mins compared to the first 45 mins. Presumably, given the amount of criticism he has at the moment, the stats would condemn him?

(We would also need to make an allowance that because Stanley have less strength in depth on the subs bench than other clubs. For example, presumably Sunderland are bound to do better in the second half because of their resources)

But if only someone were to do this analysis then that might prove whether Coley is indeed a genius or fool and the bickering might stop?

STOP PRESS!!!! Oh look, here's the figures and it's clear to see..... John Coleman Football Genius

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/foot...2nd-half-goals

cashman · 24-01-2020, 13:09

aye its clear to see. hes top alphabetically.

Inspector Morse · 24-01-2020, 13:38

'But if only someone were to do this analysis then that might prove whether Coley is indeed a genius or fool and the bickering might stop?'

TBF we all know he's a genius. Just one with an aversion to substitutions.

choirboy · 24-01-2020, 15:31

Substitutions?

.............What Substitutions?

Spartacus2nd · 24-01-2020, 16:20

Theres a graph somewhere ontwitter that shows Coley as being something like 3rd in all 4 divisions for the impact his subs have made ...

Exile on Spencer St · 24-01-2020, 16:45

And on another thread on here the other day there was a statistic that ‘proved’ that Ozzie was (at that time) a more effective goal scorer than Suarez and van Persie!

That’s not a criticism of the manager or the player, but of statistics.

Twenty Eight · 24-01-2020, 16:59

We’ve got a distinctly average starting 11.
We’ve got distinctly lower than average options on the bench.
The issue is the quality of recruitment not subs.

cashman · 24-01-2020, 19:10

recruitment is simply down to what can be afforded nothing else.a player trained with us then went to a lower division last week, that says it all to me.

Twenty Eight · 24-01-2020, 19:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by cashman

recruitment is simply down to what can be afforded nothing else.a player trained with us then went to a lower division last week, that says it all to me.

How many other teams at our level received £2.3 mill in transfer fees then plead “we can’t afford it”
Embarrassing.

cashman · 24-01-2020, 19:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Twenty Eight

How many other teams at our level received £2.3 mill in transfer fees then plead “we can’t afford it”
Embarrassing.

thats your opinion, personally think its daft, but then you were not around in 1962 i bet.

Lord Stiffupperlip · 24-01-2020, 19:54

We've been on the back foot from the start of the season with the continued absence of our talisman Billy Kee.
Since which we appear to have lost almost half the squad with a catalogue of either short or long term injuries.
Most of the players who've warmed the bench all season are on loan from Championship clubs or above.
It's easy to criticise, but some have had little or no opportunity to prove their worth, eg.- Diallo (Wolves).
With so many of Coley's regular choices under performing, perhaps it's time to give these lads a chance.
Personally, I'd bring Rodgers back in at RB, move Johnson up to RMF with Opoku in CMF & give Diallo a start.
With the current injury crisis it's time to try something new, as the usual game plan clearly isn't working.
If we go for the same old selection at Burton, we may be in for another hiding.
Come on Professor Coleman, it's time for some brave choices.

Twenty Eight · 24-01-2020, 20:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by cashman

thats your opinion, personally think its daft, but then you were not around in 1962 i bet.

Around as in born ? Yes. Around Accrington no.

Lord Didsbury · 24-01-2020, 22:03

Not top alphabetically, Cashy.
Think if you bothered to look you’ll see his policy of not using subs means we are about 4th overall in Teams that have done better in the second half.

I’m pretty sure, over the years I’ve watched, that his policy of not using subs has served us well in terms of results. It’s easy to remember those games where he didn’t make a sub and we didn’t win, but what about those where he made no sub and we still went on to win? I bet those are soon forgotten.

I don’t get why people want subs. It generally means replacing a good player with an inferior one.

DAV007 · 24-01-2020, 22:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Didsbury

Not top alphabetically, Cashy.
Think if you bothered to look you’ll see his policy of not using subs means we are about 4th overall in Teams that have done better in the second half.

I’m pretty sure, over the years I’ve watched, that his policy of not using subs has served us well in terms of results. It’s easy to remember those games where he didn’t make a sub and we didn’t win, but what about those where he made no sub and we still went on to win? I bet those are soon forgotten.

I don’t get why people want subs. It generally means replacing a good player with an inferior one.

Disagree with that.

Subs are now an important part of the game as players performance and peak fitness can make all the difference.
Football is about gaining small margins, fitness and fatigue are key in the modern game.

cashman · 25-01-2020, 07:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Didsbury

Not top alphabetically, Cashy.
Think if you bothered to look you’ll see his policy of not using subs means we are about 4th overall in Teams that have done better in the second half.

I’m pretty sure, over the years I’ve watched, that his policy of not using subs has served us well in terms of results. It’s easy to remember those games where he didn’t make a sub and we didn’t win, but what about those where he made no sub and we still went on to win? I bet those are soon forgotten.

I don’t get why people want subs. It generally means replacing a good player with an inferior one.

it dont matter how good a player is, if he aint at the races then its better to change him imho.also he has won games not using a sub,its common sense that, as your printing facts, how many times have we actually got away doing that?