Accyweb's Help With Lost Item!
 

Missing: Winter of 2007 for Eastern United States

How has the Winter been over there in Accy land? Today the temps "should" be ~20 degrees F to 40 degrees F. Instead it's been ~40 to 70F. It's become quite annoying. Way too much time to work outside thereby not having the usual down time for my body to recooperate.

Also, the fruit trees, grapes, etc., need the temps. to stay below freezing for at least a couple of weeks to fruit efficiently. Plus I just enjoy the different seasons. I really like the very cold, wintery days.:(

Okay, what's your guys input? Has England had a more normal winter then us? Do you think Al Gore's got something to do with it to make sure the Democrats win the Presidency in 2008?:)

Brian

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It's been incredibly mild so far here too.

We've hardly had any frosts this winter.

I have daisies out in my garden that should have been killed off in Ocotber. Also I was lazy and haven't repotted my geraniums. These are very susceptible to frost, and are still alive.

Here is the weather for next five days in Accy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1151

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As one of the few who has recently been in both the USA and Accrington, the weather has been very mild in both places.

It seems very strange, as I really enjoy a bit of wintery weather. Feels more like April!

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We'll soon have vineyards in Lancashire, and France will be like the Sahara Desert.:D

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febuary / march is uk winter now :rolleyes:

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I just thought of something. Rindy, on or about 12/22/2006, did you or did you not welcome the coming of summer?

Now just what kinda pull do you have with Momma Nature?:D Or is it you're in cohoots with Al Gore?

Brian

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Yes Brian we need the frost to kill off the parasites, to enable good fruit to mature and ensure a good crop. Nature fullfills its own course without any intervention from man. such as 'gm' foods, if it has not evolved naturally, 'DONT' eat it.

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no he did it on the 22/12/2006 coz hes english :p

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According to the Met Office 2007 is likely to be the warmest on record. Haven't got a clue on how to add a link so have just copied and paste:

According to climate change experts at the Met office, 2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998.

Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year.

The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Nino, greenhouse gas, concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous 7 years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.

The Met Office forecast for 2007 shows two significant findings:

Firstly, the global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C. And there is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long-term average).

The potential for a global record breaking 2007 arises partly from a moderate strength El Nino already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007.

The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and therefore has a greater influence on the global temperatures during the year.

Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting explains: “This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world. Our work in the climate change consultancy team applies Met Office research to help businesses mitigate against risk and adapt at a strategic level for success in the new environment

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We seemed to be having a very mild winter, in fact i'm sure that Accrington is still waiting for it's first frost.

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LYY can I ask, what 'cars' do you have in the 'family'

Then ask yourself why its so warm :D

Then ask your goverment why they won't sign Kyoto agreement...........

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I am Momma Nature's messenger on Earth, relaying to the humans the changing of the changing seasons.;)

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Geez Ian, ya blaming me and mine for melting all the glaziers?:D

Sure you can ask about our vehicle usage but first please understand a bit about this thing called America. Where we live (outside of the cities)(8 miles outside our town) we have no public transportation, no taxi service, heck there's not even room enough on the orads to walk or ride a bike into town. So, as requested:

Car 1 (2001 mid-size) - Leaves the house at 6 a.m. with my daughter for drill practice and school. Comes home at 3 p.m. then leaves again to take her to work until ~10 p.m. (All driving is back and forth from town)

Car 2 (2001 small-SUV) - Leaves house at 7:30 a.m. with Cindy (Cinnyose) to take my son to school then she's off to work until 5 p.m.. She then picks Joshua up from school and gets home at 5:30 p.m.. (All driving is back and forth from town)

Pick-up Truck (2003 Pick-up Truck) - Comes and goes throughout the day and is actually used as a truck is meant to be used. (~50 miles daily)

Welcome to my world. Trust me between insurance ($1,400), taxes, as well as a delightful yearly personal property tax (~$250/vehicle), I'd much rather have a horse or a bike to get around. Unfortunately, we don't have that luxury!

Finally, I believe the Kyoto agreement, though through rose-colored glasses looked wonderful, it would have had devastating consequences on the world economy. As written, it was totally unrealistic. On the flip side, these huge, outlandlishly profitable American corporations could do a HECK of alot more to curtail emissions, pollutants, and the poisoning of our planet. Which they turn a HUGE blind eye to!

Brian

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Entwisi is green.

Mainly because his car runs on water cabbage was boiled in.:D

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Less carbon dioxide, no doubt, but what a smell when it passes by!

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I dont know about you lot, but im sat here freezing to death :(

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ok who told cyfer the fridge was his new bedroom :rolleyes:

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I wouldn’t rejoice too soon about mild winters because it was only the other day that a news report stated that a county sized chunk of the north pole became detached and was floating southwards. Apart from the danger to shipping there is the small point of all that mainly fresh water ice and snow melting into the North Atlantic and pushing the Gulf Stream into the depths long before it does so now.

A few more of those and the Gulf Stream, the one that keeps these islands ten degrees warmer than the latitude indicates, will also get pushed south, leaving us at the mercy of our true latitude. Winters will come with a vengeance to the UK apart from the far South West.

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Yes jambutty I agree it will be an allmighty disaster, there was recently a program on Prince Edward Island, on television recently that was very enlightening, correct me if i'm wrong, this is on a similar latitude to ourselves but without the benefit of the Gulf Stream, the winters there are of a truly 'Arctic' nature.

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Well looking at the Met office! Our snow is yet to come! and apparently we are to get a belting from 16th onwards





If you believe the Met.office that is :)

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Hey Jambutt , is Jeremiah is your middle name ? :D :D :D

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Prince Edward Island is in the southern hemisphere in the Indian Ocean at 45 degrees 30 minutes south and 38 degrees 00 minutes east Ianto.W. Putting it about 1,000 miles south east of Capetown so it can’t really be compared to northern latitudes.

The British Isles sit between about 50 degrees north and 61 degrees north the same as Labrador and Newfoundland in Canada (the southern tip of Greenland is at 60 degrees) who do not have the benefit of the Gulf Stream. Their winter temperatures go down to about 16 degrees Fahrenheit. Let’s see – that’s 16 minus 32 multiplied by 5 and dived by 9 equals about –9 degrees C. Low enough for brass monkeys to emigrate south.

The whole Newfoundland coast and the St Lawrence River freeze over during their winter to maybe half a mile off shore.

The northern half of the British Isles is at the same latitude as Moscow and further north than Germany and Poland, which are on a par with the southern half of our islands. Yet look at their winters.

No! Why?

I don’t have a middle name but I do face reality. And the reality is that if we lose the Golf Stream we freeze.

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Must have got the name wrong jambutty (only a few thousand miles out) basic journalistic mistake 'not checking the facts', the way it was explained to me was if the ice cap keeps melting, the ocean levels rise thus cooling the Gulf Stream and pushing it further south. Please enlighten me if I am wrong regards Ianto.W.

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If the north pole ice caps melts any more it will release squillions of tons of ‘fresh’ water into the North Atlantic and as well as contributing to rising sea levels it is the fresh water that does the damage. It won’t cool the Gulf Stream because it should still flow from the tropics.

Salt water being more dense than fresh water means that the fresh water will be near the surface thus pushing the salt water down to the depths. The temperature of the water also comes into the equation. Normally as the Gulf Stream runs out of steam and nears the Arctic it gets pushed down into the depths and returns to whence it came from to be warmed up and sent back northwards. The extra fresh water from melting ice caps makes this happen much sooner. Also the air temperature above the melting ice will make things colder.

The paradox is that the more CO2 is in the atmosphere the more heat from the sun gets trapped in our atmosphere and the quicker the polar caps melt. Not to mention the snow on top of mountains. The quicker the ice caps melt the more fresh water is dumped into the sea and the earlier the Gulf Stream will be pushed down.

A couple of weeks ago on TV they showed some skiing holiday resorts in the Alps. No snow. Not a single flake and the ski runs were GREEN not WHITE.

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Thanks jambutty, the cold fresh water pushing the denser salt water down, it was a lot for an old chap to take in after a few pints. Oddly enough it was a recently retied merchant navy engineer from Oswaldtwistle who tried to explain to me, thank's again Ianto.W.

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Places of an equal latitude aren't a necessarily good indicator of similar weather. Moscow may be on a similar latitude to the UK, but because the rotation of the Earth means that nearly all weather stystems basically travel west to east, there is going to be a difference in temperature if those weather systems have to travel over land or sea.

An example, on a much smaller scale, is that Lancashire is wetter and warmer than Yorkshire, because the latter is in the rain shadow of the Pennines. The same can be seen in the temperature and precipitation patterns between Glasgow and Edinburgh. Multiply this land mass by continental proportions, rather than a few relatively small hills, and you understand why places of a similar latitude have such differing climates.

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So you are discounting the effect of the Gulf Stream garinda?

Poland and Germany have winters to be proud of (I know because I have been there during winter) because they are not warmed by the Gulf Stream as does the eastern seaboard of Canada.

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No of course not. Just pointing out that although it has a temperate effect on the climate of the UK at the moment, particularly the west and south west, it will still be travelling this way whatever the temperature, and the effects on our climate in the future.

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[quote=jambutty;364083]Prince Edward Island is in the southern hemisphere in the Indian Ocean at 45 degrees 30 minutes south and 38 degrees 00 minutes east Ianto.W. Putting it about 1,000 miles south east of Capetown so it can’t really be compared to northern latitudes.

quote]

I was taught that P.E.I. was Canadas smallest province , part of the Maritimes , http://www.gov.pe.ca/visitorsguide/ seems the Canadian Govt. agree with me , crikey Jambo , wrong hemisphere, wrong ocean,
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

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I hope that you are right garinda but science is of the opinion that the Gulf Stream will not get as far north as it does today if the north polar ice cap carries on melting at the current rate, because of the density of fresh and sea water differential, not to mention the actual cooling effect of ice cold water from the arctic.

However I should have been talking about the North Atlantic Drift, which stems from the original Gulf Stream.

I may not be around to feel the effect but then no one expected well established and long standing ski resorts to be without snow and humungous chunks of the arctic polar ice detaching itself and drifting south.

Have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream and http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/impact/gulf_stream.shtml and http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/Climate/Older/Gulf_Stream.html

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I'm not disagreeing with you about the effect the Gulf Stream has, and how it effects our climate. My main point was that not many places of a similar latitude have the same weather, as it depends where they are placed in relation to the major continental land masses.

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Sorry to disappoint you steeljack but there is a Prince Edward Island in the Indian Ocean at the coordinates I gave. In fact it is two islands one named Prince Edward Island and the other named Marion Island. Get an atlas and look it up.

I had forgotten all about the Prince Edward Island off Nova Scotia.

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Lastest update......Carbon saturation in the earths atmosphere at it's highest level for 20 million years (arctic researchers)...Earth heats up, ice caps melt...sea levels rise between 1 and 2 metres (bye east anglia), ice caps melt earth gets even warmer as the caps reflect alot of heat from the sun. As more fresh water enters the seas the Gulf stream slows and eventually stops. Northern hemosphere then freezes plunging the world into a new ice age (which is several hundred years overdue). last ice age last 10,000 years.
Time to get your thermals out!!!

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No dissappointment here, there may in fact be a rock outcroping in the southern Indian ocean , , but that was not the P.E.I. being discussed , it was the other one ....... the one adjacent to the route of the Gulf stream , near the Canadain mainland, the one more people know about ,that the other writer was talking about before you decided to give us the geography lesson
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

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There is no may about it. Prince Edward Island exists as I stated and is large enough to be noted on a school atlas.

You really do need to brush up on your geography if you think that the Canadian PEI is adjacent to the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream starts in the Gulf of Mexico travels round Florida and up the USA eastern seaboard (to round about North Carolina) before galloping off across the North Atlantic towards us lot over here. Or put it another way it doesn’t come within 1,500 miles of the PEI that is off the north coast of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. There is no PEI adjacent to the Gulf Stream unless you call 1,500 miles adjacent.

In any case at latitude 46 degrees north PEI is just a bit south of the UK and without the benefit of the Gulf Stream or more accurately the North Atlantic Drift, as Ianto.W. pointed out, their winters are for real. Without the benefit of the warming waters from the south we would have winters similar to theirs.

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From wikipedia ......The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, exits through the Strait of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.........

if you notice, your school atlas will show , probably in the pages showing the British Empire.....Newfoundland is north-east of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick (which PEI is adjacent) therefore one would logically assume that the Gulf Stream passes this area before reaching Newfoundland and then swinging out into the North Atlantic .

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Have a look at the map they so thoughtfully provide at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gulf_Stream_water_temperature.jpg Where the Gulf Stream becomes the North Atlantic Drift is off the North Carolina coast. That orangy/yellow bit and that swings out north eastward across the North Atlantic. In fact it is more east-north-east.

So the map is at odds with the statement “follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.........” However if you compare their map with the eastern seaboard of the USA that black peninsula near the top is south of Baltimore and Baltimore is nowhere near Canada.

I should imagine that the map is an image taken from a satellite and being a photograph I would suggest that it is right. Whoever wrote the text did so in the mistaken belief that the GS or NAD goes up as far as Newfoundland. That’s what they used to teach at school many years ago until technology showed that the teaching wasn’t quite correct.

In any case if Newfoundland and PEI were influenced by the GS wouldn’t they have milder winters than they do? Would the St Lawrence River and the Gulf of St Lawrence be frozen in winter if the GS went up that far?

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its the fresh water in the St Lawrence river what freezes and closes down the seaway, the Maritime province ports are open

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Although it's in French, the warm sea currents are in red, the cold ones being the white.

http://www.dinosoria.com/climatique/gulf_004.jpg

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The ex merchantman who first 'wised' me up about the Gulf Stream and PEI, was on a ship that got trapped in the ice on the way to pick a rather worthless cargo up, they had to keep going back and forth for hours before an icebreaker rescued them. Hence my interest in the subject steeljack, thanks to both yourself and jambutty for the input and help, never to old to learn.

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The sea currents won't change their direction, whatever happens with the temperature. The equator will always be hotter than the Poles because it's nearer to the sun. It's just the effect they may have if they become cooler or warmer, that will have an impact on places like the UK.

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It's all down to altitude. It always amazes me when you're flying that you get ice on the plane windows. I wonder why that didn't happen to Icarus?:D



http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feature...altitude.shtml

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As the NAD progresses northwards it meets the cold water of the North Atlantic, cools and becomes more dense than the water it meets. This causes it to sink and underwater currents take it back towards the Mexican Gulf.

If or maybe rather when the North polar ice cap melts it chucks squillions of tons of very cold water into the North Atlantic and it travels southwards and meets the NAD further south than before. Thus the above process happens further south than normal.

The more melt there is from the North polar ice cap the further south the GS sinks.

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And as you go higher, the density of the air, which helps to capture and reatain heat, rapidly decreases. Also, at sea level, there is a lot of land and water to capture and retain the sun's radiant heat. Not so at high altitudes!

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Hi Willow,

Two things that drive the Gulf Stream circulation. The first, of course, is the enormous amount of solar energy captured by the tropical areas of the ocean. However, as the stream cools, the salinity of the water causes it to sink in the northern seas, where there is essentially a cold return current. As this cold current runs deep in the ocean, it does not cause a lot of cooling to land masses. The concern is that the fresh water ice melt from the Arctic will interfere with and possibly stop the sinking of the water, messing up the return flow, effectively shutting the Gulf Stream down.

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It’s not being dim WillowTheWhisp, just curious and there is nothing wrong in that.

We are talking about squillions and squillions of gallons of water and the fresh will mix with the salty – eventually. It just doesn’t happen in an instant like it does in your saucepan.

Taking the principle to the extreme – put a spoonful of Bovril in a cup and then pour water onto it. The mix will not occur unless you stir it vigorously.

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It hailstoned yesterday when i was taking a 5 minute break round the back of the sports centre!

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Hs it not shut down at least once before thanks to an out spill of fresh water from Canada?