Thread: Playoffs
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Old 17-03-2017, 13:54   #39
Lord Didsbury
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Re: Playoffs

Just to re-convince myself about this playoff improbability.....

IF we win our two games in hand we would be 7 points off 7th and 9 points off 4th. (Ignore any teams between 7th and us. They are irrelevant, since for this to work we will be steaming past them anyway.)

So, that's 4 teams we could theoretically catch, but only 9 games left.

The teams we could catch have averaged 1.55 points/game so far. You'd think that in the remaining games some teams will average, say, 1.7 points/game whilst the others 1.3.

this means the worst of those teams might get 12 points. But since we can't choose which of those four teams only gets 12 points, lets say we need another point to be sure.

Therefore, we need to get 12+1+7 to catch them. 20 points from 9 games..... which means 26 points from 11.

We need 8 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat from the remaining games and then fingers crossed on goal difference.

IF we win the next three games then I'll change my mind, but it's an impossible task at this point.
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