Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile on Spencer St
Sorry, Andyd, just can’t let this go.
If you genuinely believe more, and mandatory, testing is going to help us get out of this man-made mess then you can’t have been reading what many, many scientists and doctors (not computer modellers) have been writing and saying about just how unreliable is the PCR process, and how it is picking up all sorts of viral remnants that we all have all the time.
Take a look at this chart and ask yourself if you notice any difference between the spike of “cases” and deaths in March/April and the (apparent) similar spike now.
And ask yourself why the Govt has continued to refuse to answer what % of total tests being carried are these recorded ‘positive cases’, and is that % going up, down, or staying the same. More tests, more “cases“, perhaps, but not it now seems more deaths.
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Testing during March was on a much smaller scale than currently. The best estimates produced by ONS/Kings College is that there were around 100000 cases a day at that point. Therefore, the positive tests in March represented a vast underestimate of actual cases. Comparing the ratio of deaths to positive tests between now and 6 months ago isn't valid.
And deaths are increasing, that trend is clear. The rate of increase is around double every 8-10 days.
Most concerning is the number of admissions and patients ventilated within ICU. The number in ICU has doubled in 6 days. The knock on effect this has on the rest of the healthcare sector is vast, and much too complex to go into here. The overriding issue though is even with a modest increase in admissions to ICU/hospital, the net direct and indirect effect on morbidity and mortality is large. Also, unfortunately around half the patients who have been ventilated die based on experience in the UK.
Regardless of the specificity of the current testing regime, it is the best tool we have to help prevent ongoing transmission - short of imposing severe, vast restrictions on everyone's lives again.
With regards to getting fans back at football, there are no easy solutions. The solution certainly isn't no restrictions. It probably is something around very limited capacity, with additional support from centralised bodies, with risk mitigation through large scale population testing. I know that's rubbish for everyone, but it is the reality of our current situation.