[andyd]

Originally Posted by Tom D

Testing during March was on a much smaller scale than currently. The best estimates produced by ONS/Kings College is that there were around 100000 cases a day at that point. Therefore, the positive tests in March represented a vast underestimate of actual cases. Comparing the ratio of deaths to positive tests between now and 6 months ago isn't valid.

And deaths are increasing, that trend is clear. The rate of increase is around double every 8-10 days.

Most concerning is the number of admissions and patients ventilated within ICU. The number in ICU has doubled in 6 days. The knock on effect this has on the rest of the healthcare sector is vast, and much too complex to go into here. The overriding issue though is even with a modest increase in admissions to ICU/hospital, the net direct and indirect effect on morbidity and mortality is large. Also, unfortunately around half the patients who have been ventilated die based on experience in the UK.

Regardless of the specificity of the current testing regime, it is the best tool we have to help prevent ongoing transmission - short of imposing severe, vast restrictions on everyone's lives again.

With regards to getting fans back at football, there are no easy solutions. The solution certainly isn't no restrictions. It probably is something around very limited capacity, with additional support from centralised bodies, with risk mitigation through large scale population testing. I know that's rubbish for everyone, but it is the reality of our current situation.

I was referring to football not the general public which brings me to now I am currently in Bury absolutely packed QC scanning codes all over haven't seen one person scanning one social distancing none existing in most areas especially the market and we can't go football pull the other one.