Quote:
Originally Posted by Wynonie Harris
I can see where you're coming from. You think that if an imminent referendum triggered the debate in earnest, established political figures would weigh in with a pro-EU approach and the middle-of-the-road British voter would fall into line.
A few years ago that theory might have held good, but we live in interesting times now. People have been lied to, deceived, patronised and taken for granted by all mainstream political parties once too often and we don't believe any of them anymore. So why should we believe them on the merits of the EU?
There won't be a referendum because the politicians are frightened of the possible result, but if there was, I would bet you a pre-match pint in the Oak Lea that the "out" vote would win it!  |
The out vote would win amongst traditional and socialist Labour voters (good reasons), right wing little englanders (daft reasons) and Mail and Express (daft reasons) readers outside the south east in my view. Interstinlgly as with AV, Scotland and N Ireland will vote significantly to stay in. I still remain of the opinion that a snap referendum would result in a close finish/out, a long referenda (which it will be) will see a shift to pro-EU. If the starting position was 60-40 than I think the EU out will win, but if it is 51-49, they have lost.
I do lots of SME companies and I get the same message, domestic demand has slipped and if it wasn't for Europe/Non EU (but mainly EU) we would have closed the business and XXXXX employee's would have gone on the dole.
These companies, silent to their employee's now because there isn't a refernedum will a) panic at the referendum b) support the pro EU c) ensure their employee's 'get the significance of the message' i.e. you could lose your job. Not friends of the Labour Party nor friends of ordinary workers, The CBI and FSB have made their members views well known. I do not believe the anti-EU will beat that powerful argument AND furthermore they will fall in to the foolish trap of discussing the HRA (and other trivialities to economic ones) which does not 'put bread on the table' of the ordinary person.
Just my view but the pro-Eu will win a long campaign, may lose a short campaign if the nation is at 51-49 now.