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g jones · 23-10-2011, 09:55

Interestingly the youGov poll this week has confirmed the intricacies of a 3 part question as opposed to an in/out. I would have thought those who represent the 28% who want Britain out regardless would oppose Mondays motion based on the likelihood that it will keep Britain in Europe for the foreseeable future.

The survey supports my view that the 47% (how I would vote) see the case both ways but on balance would stay in with a renegotiation. The last IPSOS MORi had 60% of people's concerns being jobs and employment and just 5% the EU. These two seem consistent polling wise and would indicate on a triple question there is little chance of a referendum resulting in Britains withdrawal.

Express misleads on EU poll results

The front page of Saturday's Daily Express claims:

'75% say: 'Quit the EU now''. That's the way the Express has summarised a poll conducted by YouGov.

But the article by Alison Little makes clear this isn't what the poll really shows. Indeed, her first sentence says:

An overwhelming 75 per cent of Britons would vote in a referendum to quit the EU or renegotiate the terms.

The 'or renegotiate the terms' bit is important because, as the Express reveals five paragraphs from the end, if a referendum included three options about the UK's relationship with Europe:

15 per cent would vote for the status quo, 28 per cent would vote to leave the EU and 47 per cent would vote to renegotiate membership terms.*

So the '75%' saying 'quit now' actually includes 47% who don't actually want to quit if renegotiation is an option.**

The poll was conducted by YouGov for the campaign group Vote UK out of EU and their press release on these results makes clear that:

75% of those surveyed would vote to change the current relationship between the UK and the EU.

'Change the current relationship'. Not 'quit now'.

What if the referendum gave a more straightforward 'in or out' choice? The Express states:

Given a choice to stay in or get out – without the option to renegotiate – 52 per cent would quit, 31 per cent would stay in, while the rest are “don’t knows”.

According to this poll, if it's in or out, 52% say quit. If it's in, out or renegotiate, 28% say quit.

So why has the Express claimed '75% say quit now' in the headline?

23-10-2011, 09:55	#215
g jones Senior Member+ Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,125 Liked: 14 times Rep Power: 732	Re: How'd you vote in an E.U. referendum? Interestingly the youGov poll this week has confirmed the intricacies of a 3 part question as opposed to an in/out. I would have thought those who represent the 28% who want Britain out regardless would oppose Mondays motion based on the likelihood that it will keep Britain in Europe for the foreseeable future. The survey supports my view that the 47% (how I would vote) see the case both ways but on balance would stay in with a renegotiation. The last IPSOS MORi had 60% of people's concerns being jobs and employment and just 5% the EU. These two seem consistent polling wise and would indicate on a triple question there is little chance of a referendum resulting in Britains withdrawal. Express misleads on EU poll results The front page of Saturday's Daily Express claims: '75% say: 'Quit the EU now''. That's the way the Express has summarised a poll conducted by YouGov. But the article by Alison Little makes clear this isn't what the poll really shows. Indeed, her first sentence says: An overwhelming 75 per cent of Britons would vote in a referendum to quit the EU or renegotiate the terms. The 'or renegotiate the terms' bit is important because, as the Express reveals five paragraphs from the end, if a referendum included three options about the UK's relationship with Europe: 15 per cent would vote for the status quo, 28 per cent would vote to leave the EU and 47 per cent would vote to renegotiate membership terms.* So the '75%' saying 'quit now' actually includes 47% who don't actually want to quit if renegotiation is an option.** The poll was conducted by YouGov for the campaign group Vote UK out of EU and their press release on these results makes clear that: 75% of those surveyed would vote to change the current relationship between the UK and the EU. 'Change the current relationship'. Not 'quit now'. What if the referendum gave a more straightforward 'in or out' choice? The Express states: Given a choice to stay in or get out – without the option to renegotiate – 52 per cent would quit, 31 per cent would stay in, while the rest are “don’t knows”. According to this poll, if it's in or out, 52% say quit. If it's in, out or renegotiate, 28% say quit. So why has the Express claimed '75% say quit now' in the headline?